This Blog is a continuation of the original blog listed above. The original blog has been locked/frozen to preserve what is deemed to be valuable intellectual property.
X-i:
The below research project titled: "2011-2012 Jamaica Election Stone Polling Methodology Version was completed originally in February 2011. This project presents volumes of social science information. My purpose is foremost one of a Social Scientist outlining the corners of a book based on applied social scientific research.
Below data contains the core elements of my original research executed under the name: "phantomresearcher-X-1"
It is my intent in this thread to focus on the straight line as it relates to the point of Central Tendency (1.67), The Jamaica Labour Party rating of +1 and the Peoples National Party rating of +5. The New Nation Party rating of -1 is self explanatory as it relates to statistical immateriality, they did not contest the election. The research did not directly conclude their none participation, but the data did determine that they would not be a factor.
-5__-2__- 1_____+ 1_ CT__+2____+ 5
.....................0........... (1.67)
Central Tendency:
"The tendency of a group of scores to cluster around a central representative score. The statistics most frequently used for measures of central tendency are the mean, median, and mode"
Read more: http://www.answers.com/topic/central-tendency#ixzz1ihq1stla
*************************
Phantom Research X-1 (2/2011)
"Attitudinal Survey Data
This research project employed a strategy of randomness in the selection 10 Newspaper Articles. These articles were administered to randomly selected individuals (voters) to measure their attitudinal responses to the sentiments expresses in the Articles relative to the 3 Political Parties. A Likert ordinal scaling tool was used to score their responses. The Total possible score was +50/-50. Ratings: Jlp= +1, Pnp =+5 and Nnc= -1.
Total Attitudinal Scale Scores:
Jlp = +1
Pnp = +5
Nnc = -1
Mean: 1.2/3 or 1.67
Chart 1
-5__-2__- 1_____+ 1_ CT__+2____+ 5
.....................0.............. (1.67)
In this study, the important rating is where one (Jlp, Pnp and Nnc) falls in reference to the point of CT. This point will relate to Chart #2 which will address the next 18 months. (See next edition) ”
*********************
1. Most potential voters in the survey rated the JLP less than average when they compared them attitudinally to the 10 articles.
2. Most potential voters in the survey rated the PNP more than average when they compared them attitudinally to the 10 articles.
3. The gap between the two (2) parties attitudinally was represented by a four (4) point spread on a five (5) point scale. This is very significant statistically and ultimately manifested itself in the 2011 Election results, considered a landslide victory for the PNP.
4. The attitudinal statistical survey data indicated that based on data inferences the government was about to change from JLP to PNP in a statistically dramatic way.
You may validate the finding of this research by testing your own theory post election by:
i. creating a scale from -5 thru +5 and represent the election results on that scale
ii. compare your results with this research findings listed in Chart 1.
_____________________________________
"2011-2012 Jamaica Election Stone Polling Methodology Version
Feb 6th, 2011
Jamaica 2012 Election Attitudinal Research Project
I often review and sometimes conduct my own research utilizing operationalized Apollonian simulation methodology as a signature style. My usual focus oftentimes evolves among the following: theoretical methodological construct, parsimony, harmoniousness of strategy, and scaling. My latest project is the pending Jamaican Election estimated to occur within the 18 months and the attitudes of individual regarding the parties involved.
This is project is being delivered through a ‘challenging blog format’ subject to censor at every stage; however, due to viability of blog rebounding it is always an option to reinvent in another forum or format, so censoring is but an inconvenient blogging headache.
Method: “Based on a choice of facts”-(Poincare)
Why is ‘method’ so critical? Because, every second there are scores of things occurring in our environment, moving at varying levels and degrees. i.e. try to use your 5 senses and notice everything occurring around you in the next 15 minutes, virtually impossible. This is why method is critical. Method is a devised strategy of observation to create some order to study occurrences. In essence, we sieve the data to determine which facts are more important. In this area Poincare, gives us a guide: 1) The more general a fact, the more precious its applicability, 2) Choose simplicity, the more simple the more likely of reoccurrence (replicability), 3) Look at extremes, both ends of the spectrum, 4) Look for exceptions and 5) Choose facts that are harmonious in nature.
The crux of my methodology will be achieving harmony through method. i.e. how does the facts fit together logically and can they be replicated.
The Scientific Method: This refers to the observation process/procedure
The following represents this research study scientific construct method: Theory→logical deduction→paradigm→hypothesis→method→facts observed→scaling/measurement→empirical generalization/findings.
Theory: If this research can define the case of a ‘pure voter’ in the following working universal spheres (Jlp, Pnp and Nnc), this will set the foundation for harmony within the theoretical methodology.
“In chemistry or in physics there is often no problem of finding [the pure case]. When the chemist wants to establish a proposition about sulphur he can use any lump of chemically pure sulphur (provided its crystalline form is irrelevant to the experiment) and treat it as a true and pure representative of sulphur. If a social scientist wants to study the Jamaican voter, it would simplify research enormously if he could find the pure voter, the one person who would be the representative of all Jamaican voters, so that all that was necessary would be to ask him or watch his behavior” –(Phantomesearcher, 2007)
Pureness Parameters
JLP Pure Voter: Attitudinal Attributes=conservative politically, support pro-capitalistic business theories, generally against increased minimum wages, people should know there place mentality, generally Eurocentric, authoritarian traditionalist mentality.
PNP Pure Voter: Attitudinal Attributes: Liberal politically, support union and workers rights, pro business cooperative mentality, generally supports frequent increase minimum wage increase, fight for your right mentality, generally Afrocentric, authoritarian new world mentality.
Neutral Pure Voter: Attitudinal Attributes: Change, change, change mentality and a hybrid of the first two Pure Voters attributes.
Logical Deduction: Operationalized imperative paradigm
Based on precedence one can conclude that both major parties JLP and PNP account for 61% of the electorate (party die hearts) 31.5% respectively. 39% Neutral. (Jamaica Electoral Office, 2007
Hypothesis: If X, then Y. If virtual factual imperatives can be accurately defined; then, ‘stimuli’- (as in responses to occurrences represented by newspaper articles and blog responses) can serve as a logical attitudinal measure; which through simulated parsimonious harmony can be a predictor of generalized future voting behavior.
Method: Apply attitudinal ordinal scaling to each selected article which possesses a national general relevance sentiment and score objectively the most appropriate rating, using an Affect Theory Model.
Empirical Generalization/Findings: Provides a scientifically valid insight into the likely party that will be victorious in the next general election relevant to ‘preference attitude’.
Risk: False positives. This is based on 18 months being a long time in socio-political matters and variables and attitudes could change, based on stimulus input. However, because this study deliberately designed ‘static’ relevant variables as a background method, it minimizes this risk. Additionally, the level of ‘publicness’ and relevance of articles chosen randomly will also serve to minimize this risk.
Operational Variables:
These are essential and critical to the methodological approach of this research project as it provides a linkage of harmony among; theory, observation, scaling and findings.
Variable 1: Background socio-economic status (SES). Est. 65% working class.
Variable 2: Social stratification/cohesion; uniformity of thought among various stratified groups of individuals.
Variable 3: Age 18-55, information/internet savvy, hyper abstraction level of theory of rising expectation (blingy).
Variable 4: Attitudinal authoritarian mindset i.e. I can influence change “a mi run things, things nuh run mi”. This can be further defined as the change variable.
Variable 1 and 2 share an elevated level of harmonious content, due to social status. This facilitates sparse explanation of events for individuals to understand events in relative SES terms. Basically a uniform angle of how each event is interpreted.
Variable 3 and 4 are linked harmoniously by access to information technology and authoritarianism attitude towards change.
Scaling/Measurement
How does this research project quantitatively account for linkage of theory to findings? This will be accomplished through utilization of a Likert attitudinal ordinal scaling method, embedded in logics of imperatives viewed through the lens of variables 1-4.
Re-inforcement of Theory
This Researcher will revisit this socio-politico-behavioral research project at pre-selected (controlled) intervals to re-affirm theoretical attitudinal finding over the next 18 months. The dye has been casted, the interceding events to reverse the evolving trend and the various pollsters riding the people with their ‘Dionysian’ tabular percentage counting opinion survey tool using SPSS program, will make for interesting conversation; but in the end, their level of validity will be determined by their degree of convergence with the ‘Apollonian’ model used herein by X, in terms of uniformity of Finding results. Otherwise called ‘Spot-on-ness’.
Survey Data
This research project employed a strategy of randomness in the selection 10 Newspaper Articles. These articles were administered to randomly selected individuals to measure their attitudinal responses to the sentiments expresses in the Articles relative to the 3 Political Parties. A Likert ordinal scaling tool was used to score their responses. The Total possible score was +50/-50. Ratings: Jlp= +1, Pnp =+5 and Nnc= -1.
1. Vmbs writes $7bin new mortgages - Portfolio now valued at $20b published: Friday | August 8, 2008
Victoria Mutual Building Society may have had a difficult time building its savings base last year, but that did not prevent it from nearly doubling the value of the new mortgages it wrote, when compared 2006.
According to the banking group - which reported a near 20 per cent increase in profit, to $651.4 million - it last year advanced approximately $7 billion in new mortgages, a jump of 180 per cent on the previous year.
http://jamaica-gleaner.com/gleaner/20080808/business/business2.html
Survey Question: Rate the Party below on the above article:
Jlp
-5__-4___-3___-2__-1__0__1___2___3__4__5
Pnp
-5__-4___-3___-2__-1__0__1___2___3__4__5
Nnc
-5__-4___-3___-2__-1__0__1___2___3__4__5
2. Absenteeism in Parliament published: Thursday | September 11, 2008
Samuda, Shaw
On Tuesday, Speaker of the House of Representatives Delroy Chuck, rushed to the defence of tardy parliamentarians who registered high levels of absenteeism from October 2007 to March 2008, covering a total of 48 parliamentary sittings.
Chuck, in criticising an article published in The Sunday Gleaner (which pointed to the number of times parliamentarians failed to attend sittings of the House) claimed that, about 90 per cent of the time members of parliament, particularly government ministers, tendered apologies for their absence when on official government business.
http://jamaica-gleaner.com/gleaner/20080911/news/news3.html
Survey Question: Rate the Party below on the above article:
Jlp
-5__-4___-3___-2_-1__0__1___2___3__4__5
Pnp
-5__-4___-3___-2__-1__0__1___2___3__4__5
Nnc
-5__-4___-3___-2__-1__0__1___2___3__4__5
3. Tax backtrack - Gov't scraps cess on books, salt, other goodies - But drinkers, smokers to feel the squeeze
Published: Thursday | May 7, 2009
Daraine Luton, Staff Reporter
Finance Minister Audley Shaw has recanted from his position of charging general consumption tax (Gct) on books and all printed materials, excluding newspapers.
Minister Shaw has also announced a lifting of the proposed tax on salt, rolled oats, syrup, fish soup, cock soups, noodle soups, motor spirit and lubrica-ting oil for com-mercial fishing.
The finance minister made the announcement when he closed the 2009/2010 Budget Debate in Gordon House yesterday.
"The Government has listened very carefully to the points raised by everyone ... we have listened and we are responding," Shaw said.
http://jamaica-gleaner.com/gleaner/20090507/lead/lead1.html
Survey Question: Rate the Party below on the above article:
Jlp
-5__-4___-3___-2__-1__0__1__2__3__4__5
Pnp
-5__-4___-3___-2__-1__0__1___2___3__4__5
Nnc
-5_-4__-3__-2__-1__0__1__2___3__4__5
4. Bartlett defends office revamp
Published: Monday | October 12, 2009
Janet Silvera, Senior Gleaner Writer
Disputing yesterday's Sunday Gleaner report about millions spent on a makeover of his office, Tourism Minister Edmund Bartlett says 75 per cent of the money spent on his New Kingston offices made it more energy-efficient.
Bartlett said in a statement issued last night that of the nearly $8 million spent, the fees of the National Works Agency (Nwa) amounted to $422,403.
http://jamaica-gleaner.com/gleaner/20091012/lead/lead7.html
Survey Question: Rate the Party below on the above article:
Jlp
-5__-4__-3_-2__-1__0__1__2__3__4__5
Pnp
-5__-4__-3__-2__-1__0__1__2__3__4__5
Nnc
-5__-4__-3__-2__-1__0__1__2__3__4__5
5. We want and deserve more
Published: Monday | December 7, 2009
Jamaica is ill-served by a public bureaucracy that has retreated from its responsibility to manage. The problem is compounded by politicians who believe not only that the job is theirs but that they are capable of doing it.
The result is abject failure, exemplified by the embarrassingly small economic growth since Independence, deepening poverty, high levels of crime, poor performance in education, a decrepit justice system, inadequate infrastructure as well as social and physical decay. There is, too, our intensely competitive and divisive political process that often breeds violence and has difficulty in fostering consensus.
http://jamaica-gleaner.com/gleaner/20091207/lead/lead2.html
Survey Question: Rate the Party below on the above article:
Jlp
-5__-4__-3__-2__-1__0__1__2__3__4__5
Pnp
-5__-4__-3__-2__-1__0__1__2__3__4__5
Nnc
-5__-4__-3__-2__-1__0__1__2__3__4__5
6. Bruce Pays Big
Published: Sunday | June 13, 2010
16 Comments
After nine months pregnant with anticipation, and a defiant Prime Minister Bruce Golding adamant that the United States administration had not provided sufficient information to deliver Christopher 'Dudus' Coke to face the grand jury, Golding turned tail on May 17. He instructed the signing of the said document that is to begin the extradition process. But that about-face came too late to change the minds of most Jamaicans who believe the Coke issue, like an abnormal foetus in inexperienced hands, was badly handled.
A Gleaner-commissioned public-opinion poll conducted by Bill Johnson late April and early May shows that six in every 10 Jamaicans disagreed with how Golding and his band of merry men and women handled the extradition request.
http://jamaica-gleaner.com/gleaner/20100613/lead/lead1.html
Survey Question: Rate the Party below on the above article:
Jlp
-5__-4__-3_-2__-1__0__1__2__3__4__5
Pnp
-5__-4__-3__-2__-1__0__1__2__3__4__5
Nnc
-5__-4__-3__-2__-1__0__1__2__3__4__5
7. Erasing The Corruption Stain
Published: Sunday | July 4, 2010
7 Commentsampbell
Gary Spaulding, Senior Gleaner Reporter
From the furniture scandal in December 1990 to the light-bulb scandal in November 2008, allegations of corruption stalked the People's National Party (Pnp) during its record stay in office.
Neither the brilliant chandeliers acquired by politicians which triggered the furniture scandal, nor the hundreds of light bulbs from Cuba, would have any radiating effect on the Pnp.
http://jamaica-gleaner.com/gleaner/20100704/lead/lead2.html
Survey Question: Rate the Party below on the above article:
Jlp
-5__-4__-3_-2__-1__0__1__2__3__4__5
Pnp
-5__-4__-3__-2__-1__0__1__2__3__4__5
Nnc
-5__-4__-3__-2__-1__0__1__2__3__4__5
8. Blaine forms new political party
New Nation Coalition launched in Kingston
BY Ingrid Brown Senior staff reporter browni@jamaicaobserver.com
Thursday, August 05, 2010
THE history of third parties caving in under the pressure of the dominant Jamaica Labour Party (Jlp) and the People's National Party (Pnp) has not thwarted former talkshow host and children's advocate Betty Ann Blaine from launching a new political party -- New Nation Coalition (Nnc).
"We are in it for the long haul as we believe this is the time for this country to make a U-turn," Blaine told yesterday's launch of the NNC at the Wyndham Kingston Hotel in New Kingston.
Read more: http://www.jamaicaobserver.com/news/Blaine-forms-new-political-party_7854383#ixzz1DBLlSPX0
Survey Question: Rate the Party below on the above article:
Jlp
-5__-4__-3__-2__-1__0__1__2__3__4__5
Pnp
-5__-4__-3__-2__-1__0__1__2__3__4__5
Nnc
-5_-4__-3__-2__-1__0__1__2__3__4__5
9. Cash Plus Drama
Published: Friday | January 14, 2011
18 Comments
Barbara Gayle and Philip Hamilton, Gleaner Writers
Tension filled the New Kingston office of the Trustee in Bankruptcy yesterday as a St Thomas bailiff and his team went about the removal of furniture in an attempt to recover an $8.5-million debt allegedly owed by Cash Plus Group Ltd.
"It is Government of Jamaica property they have removed because Cash Plus has no assets here," declared a defiant attorney-at-law Hugh Wildman, who is the trustee in bankruptcy.
Wildman, the court-appointed liquidator for the failed investment scheme and its subsidiaries, has threatened to press criminal charges, arguing that the property seizure was illegal.
http://jamaica-gleaner.com/gleaner/20110114/lead/lead1.html
Survey Question: Rate the Party below on the above article:
Jlp
-5__-4__-3__-2_-1__0__1__2__3__4__5
Pnp
-5__-4__-3__-2_-1__0__1__2__3__4__5
Nnc
-5_-4__-3_-2_-1__0__1__2__3__4__5
10. Sandals Whitehouse Sale Needs Fresh Start - Ocg
Published: Thursday | January 20, 2011
9 Comments
Neill in discussion during A Special Evening With Air Jamaica held at The Jamaica Pegasus hotel in New Kingston last Friday. - File
Citing serious irregularities and impropriety in the proposed deal, the Office of the Contractor General (Ocg) yesterday strongly recommended that Prime Minister Bruce Golding halt the sale of Sandals Whitehouse Hotel to Gordon 'Butch' Stewart's Gorstew Limited.
In a 22-page letter to Golding and Onika Miller, permanent secretary and accounting officer in the Office of the Prime Minister, the Ocg said after carefully examining the proposed deal, it was led to launch a special statutory investigation into the circumstances of the negotiations.
http://jamaica-gleaner.com/gleaner/20110120/lead/lead6.html
Survey Question: Rate the Party below on the above article:
Jlp
-5__-4__-3__-2_-1__0__1__2__3__4__5
Pnp
-5__-4__-3__-2__-1__0__1__2__3__4__5
Nnc
-5__-4__-3_-2__-1__0__1__2__3__4__5
“ Re: Political Polling Methodology, the Stone Design
Reply #105 - Feb 6th, 2011 at 3:36pm
Attitudinal Survey Data
This research project employed a strategy of randomness in the selection 10 Newspaper Articles. These articles were administered to randomly selected individuals (voters) to measure their attitudinal responses to the sentiments expresses in the Articles relative to the 3 Political Parties. A Likert ordinal scaling tool was used to score their responses. The Total possible score was +50/-50. Ratings: Jlp= +1, Pnp =+5 and Nnc= -1.
Total Attitudinal Scale Scores:
Jlp = +1
Pnp = +5
Nnc = -1
Mean: 1.2/3 or 1.67
Chart 1
-5__-2__- 1_____+ 1_ CT__+2____+ 5
.....................0.............. (1.67)
In this study, the important rating is where one (Jlp, Pnp and Nnc) falls in reference to the point of CT. This point will relate to Chart #2 which will address the next 18 months. (See next edition) ”
%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%
(Survey using Proxy data)
Attitudinal Survey Data continuation…
11. Golding’s credibility falls further — poll
Tuesday, May 03, 2011
Kingston, Jamaica (Cmc) — A significant number of Jamaicans believe that Prime Minister Bruce Golding should demit office based on his involvement in the controversy surrounding the extradition of reputed gang leader Christopher ‘Dudus’ Coke to the United States last June.
A poll conducted by University of the West Indies (UWI) lecturer, Professor Ian Boxill, on behalf of the RJR Communications Group, shows that Golding’s credibility had suffered in the aftermath of the extradition as well as the hiring of a United States law firm, Manatt, Phelps and Phillips.
The results of the poll, which was conducted between April 9 and 15, reflect very little change from a previous one conducted in July 2010 at the height of the extradition matter when they were calls from a wide cross-section of the population for the prime minister to step down over his handling of the matter.
The calls were based on claims of inconsistencies and deception in how the Golding administration dealt with the hiring of the US law firm.
In the July 2010 poll, 54 per cent of respondents felt that based on what they knew about the Manatt/Coke affair at the time, Golding could not maintain credibility with the Jamaican people.
Nine months later in April, that figure increased to almost 57 per cent.
The number of Jamaicans who felt that Golding could maintain credibility dropped from 33.6 per cent in July 2010 to nearly 26 per cent in April this year.
In July almost nine per cent either did not know, or were not sure if he could maintain credibility, and by April that number increased to 10 per cent.
At least 49 per cent of the 1,015 Jamaicans polled in April still maintained that the prime minister should resign.
The figure represents a two per cent increase from the 47 per cent who felt the same way in July last year.
In July, 43 per cent said Prime Minister Golding should have remained in office but by April this year, that number dropped to 38 per cent.
In July, nearly seven per cent said they did not know while 8.6 per cent took a similar position in April.
Jamaicans are now awaiting the findings of a Commission of Enquiry that probed the circumstances leading to Coke’s extradition to the United States on drug and gun related charges.
Read more: http://www.jamaicaobserver.com/latestnews/Golding-s-credibility-falls-further#ixzz1LIPgk9L0
11-a Survey Question: Golding Credibility
(57-26)=-31%
.................*
-10..-4___-3___-2__- 1__0__1___2___3__4..10
11-b Survey Question: Golding Resignation
(49-38)=-11%
.....................................*
-10__-..4___-3___-2__- 1__0__1___2___3__4__..10
Chart # 2Scale 10=100
..................... (-21%) [-31-11]
-10……..-5__ CT-2__- 1_____+ 1_ __+2____+ 5……..+10
• Chart 2 Proxy survey data indicate an Attitudinal Central Tendency raw score of negative (-)21 for Prime Minister Golding on the topics of: Credibility and staying on as Prime Minister.
• Chart 1 survey data overall Attitudinal Central Tendency is +1.67. The Prime Minister party (JLP) overall attitudinal score is +1. This is .67 to the left of 1.67, which indicates a negative trending pattern.
• Statistically, this is not a healthy trend.
• Reversal of this trend is statistically unlikely within the next 9 months as indicated by the trending pattern established by Prof. Boxill’s survey data for the previous 9 months Chart # 2 and X’s attitudinal data displayed in Chart # 1. Why? Attitudes and trend/patterns are best fitted with ‘concrete boots’ and very difficult to move in significant (+) direction(s) over short time spans. This is especially challenging to accomplish when going against an empirically observed trending pattern.
• Statistically, it appears that a change is imminent in the makeup of the government if you subscribe to the validity of using attitudinal data to evaluate people’s future actions" (Source: Phantom Researcher X-1 Feb. 2011)
**********
http://opinionpollingjamstyle.blogspot.com/2011/12/influence-variable-of-polling.html
Thursday, December 15, 2011
"The Influence Variable of Polling
X-1
Acquiescence bias is a category of response bias in which respondents to a survey have a tendency to agree with all the questions or to indicate a positive connotation. Acquiescence is sometimes referred to as "yah-saying" and is the tendency of a respondent to agree with a statement when in doubt. This particularly is in the case of surveys or questionnaires that employ truisms, such as: "It is better to give than to receive" or "Never a lender nor a borrower be".
Read more: http://www.answers.com/topic/acquiescence-bias#ixzz1gdLLln9J
Social desirability bias is the tendency of respondents to answer questions in a manner that will be viewed favorably by others. It can take the form of over-reporting good behavior or under-reporting bad behavior. The tendency poses a serious problem with conducting research with self-reports, especially questionnaires. This bias interferes with the interpretation of interpreting average tendencies as well as individual differences
______________________________________________
1. How does the above relate to the Jamaica 2011 Election.
Recent Polling evidences data congregation around the same points of central tendencies i.e. JLP leads but both party remains in a statistical deadheat. Polls are acquising with their results and polling respondents are acquising based on social desirability bias.
Why: The JLP does a very good job as the incumbent with the inherent advantages of forum and media in getting their message out. This message then forms the central 'talking points' of the general populace. Polls then reflect this central tendency.
2. a) Water Melon Effect and b) Self Fulfilling Prophecy polling variable
a) The watermelon always leans toward the heavier side)".
b) A self-fulfilling prophecy is a prediction that directly or indirectly causes itself to become true, by the very terms of the prophecy itself, due to positive feedback between belief and behavior.
3. Data Gathering and analysis should always be treated with respect regardless of the environment of data gathering or the research known or unknown biases. With respect to the Jamaican election there appears to be three standard polls: Anderson, Boxill and Johnson. All three reflect a central tendency of statistical deadheat with the JLP slightly ahead but the PNP falls within the cone of error.
3a. When the observation outlined in item # 3 is associated with the very potent effect of item #2; Self Fulfilling Prophecy and Water Mellon effect, we then arrive at a point of data congregating at the previously mention point of central tendency. This data congregation is statistically significant, regardless of how the data arrived at this juncture.
4. It would appear that the "JLP's game changer decision" in replacing PM Golding with new PM Holness along with political PR strategies have made an impact on the 'likely' outcome of the election from a data analysis perspectives. However, this position is not static and with 14 days to go, the PNP could effectuate changes to this scenario. However, the present lack of electioneering PR will need to be changed or modified to be more forceful, precise, purposeful and targeted.
5. The PNP precise targeting to reverse the data trend will need to be aimed at the uncommitted and the PNP diehards whom have acquised to the no need to vote as its all over or my vote will not count crowd. These two groups includes some of the data sets on which the Attitudinal analysis is based.
6. With dataset convergence which falls within the cone of sample errors there exist sufficient numbers within the group mentioned in item # 5 which has the potential to make the ultimate difference in the 2011 election result in favour of the PNP, as they would be able to draw numbers from familiar voters or potential voters, but this action needs a strategic and tactical visionary with a budget. Scientifically, both a self-fulling prophecy variable and water mellon effect variable portrays significance in Election 2011. This significance is acknowledged by the morotorium on polling agreement by both parties as documented below.
7. Could all three pollsters be wrong in their predictions notwithstanding margin of error variable. Yes, absolutely (Dewey vs Truman: see below) and specifically that is why there is a "cone of margin of error". The PNP lagging numbers falls within this cone and mobilization of voters as discussed in item number 6 could be the difference. In this scenario "Margin of Error" would be a hot topic come post election.
If there was ever a time for the polls to be turned upside down, 2011 Election is that time as all the variables are present in this one, the only 'if' is the strategic and tactical engagement of the PNP to accomplish this"
Acquiescence bias is a category of response bias in which respondents to a survey have a tendency to agree with all the questions or to indicate a positive connotation. Acquiescence is sometimes referred to as "yah-saying" and is the tendency of a respondent to agree with a statement when in doubt. This particularly is in the case of surveys or questionnaires that employ truisms, such as: "It is better to give than to receive" or "Never a lender nor a borrower be".
Read more: http://www.answers.com/topic/acquiescence-bias#ixzz1gdLLln9J
Social desirability bias is the tendency of respondents to answer questions in a manner that will be viewed favorably by others. It can take the form of over-reporting good behavior or under-reporting bad behavior. The tendency poses a serious problem with conducting research with self-reports, especially questionnaires. This bias interferes with the interpretation of interpreting average tendencies as well as individual differences
______________________________________________
1. How does the above relate to the Jamaica 2011 Election.
Recent Polling evidences data congregation around the same points of central tendencies i.e. JLP leads but both party remains in a statistical deadheat. Polls are acquising with their results and polling respondents are acquising based on social desirability bias.
Why: The JLP does a very good job as the incumbent with the inherent advantages of forum and media in getting their message out. This message then forms the central 'talking points' of the general populace. Polls then reflect this central tendency.
2. a) Water Melon Effect and b) Self Fulfilling Prophecy polling variable
a) The watermelon always leans toward the heavier side)".
b) A self-fulfilling prophecy is a prediction that directly or indirectly causes itself to become true, by the very terms of the prophecy itself, due to positive feedback between belief and behavior.
3. Data Gathering and analysis should always be treated with respect regardless of the environment of data gathering or the research known or unknown biases. With respect to the Jamaican election there appears to be three standard polls: Anderson, Boxill and Johnson. All three reflect a central tendency of statistical deadheat with the JLP slightly ahead but the PNP falls within the cone of error.
3a. When the observation outlined in item # 3 is associated with the very potent effect of item #2; Self Fulfilling Prophecy and Water Mellon effect, we then arrive at a point of data congregating at the previously mention point of central tendency. This data congregation is statistically significant, regardless of how the data arrived at this juncture.
4. It would appear that the "JLP's game changer decision" in replacing PM Golding with new PM Holness along with political PR strategies have made an impact on the 'likely' outcome of the election from a data analysis perspectives. However, this position is not static and with 14 days to go, the PNP could effectuate changes to this scenario. However, the present lack of electioneering PR will need to be changed or modified to be more forceful, precise, purposeful and targeted.
5. The PNP precise targeting to reverse the data trend will need to be aimed at the uncommitted and the PNP diehards whom have acquised to the no need to vote as its all over or my vote will not count crowd. These two groups includes some of the data sets on which the Attitudinal analysis is based.
6. With dataset convergence which falls within the cone of sample errors there exist sufficient numbers within the group mentioned in item # 5 which has the potential to make the ultimate difference in the 2011 election result in favour of the PNP, as they would be able to draw numbers from familiar voters or potential voters, but this action needs a strategic and tactical visionary with a budget. Scientifically, both a self-fulling prophecy variable and water mellon effect variable portrays significance in Election 2011. This significance is acknowledged by the morotorium on polling agreement by both parties as documented below.
7. Could all three pollsters be wrong in their predictions notwithstanding margin of error variable. Yes, absolutely (Dewey vs Truman: see below) and specifically that is why there is a "cone of margin of error". The PNP lagging numbers falls within this cone and mobilization of voters as discussed in item number 6 could be the difference. In this scenario "Margin of Error" would be a hot topic come post election.
If there was ever a time for the polls to be turned upside down, 2011 Election is that time as all the variables are present in this one, the only 'if' is the strategic and tactical engagement of the PNP to accomplish this"
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X-1:
The Influence of Polls is acknowledge by this historic agreement as documented below.
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"Professor Hopeton Dunn
by Edmond Campbell, Senior Staff Reporter
A HISTORIC pact has been signed among the media, political parties, the Electoral Commission of Jamaica (ECJ) and the Broadcasting Commission to observe a campaign-free period of a full day when no political advertisements will be aired or published by the electronic and print media.
As part of the deal, no opinion-poll results should be released 24 hours ahead of the December 29 general election.
ECJ Chairman Professor Errol Miller hailed the accord as "one small step for the two commissions, one giant step for the country".
As part of the voluntary agreement, the political parties have pledged to halt political broadcasts and campaign advertising from midnight on December 27 in the electronic media and to provide no new campaign ads on the Internet.
No media ads
The print and electronic media have also voluntarily decided to discontinue publishing or airing political broadcasts and media campaign advertisements in a similar time frame just before the start of polling.
"This means that all electronic media organisations will stop carrying political campaign ads from midnight on December 27, through to the opening of polls at 7 a.m. on December 29," chairman of the Broadcasting Commission, Professor Hopeton Dunn, disclosed yesterday.
Addressing journalists during a press briefing hosted jointly by the ECJ and the Broadcasting Commission at the latter's offices on Knutsford Boulevard in New Kingston, Dunn pointed out that the agreement was also binding on affiliates of the political parties.
Giving details, he said the print media was not expected to publish political ads on December 28 and December 29.
He also advised that the political parties and their affiliates were not expected to campaign on social-media networks, such as Facebook and Twitter, during the stipulated hiatus.
The major political parties have also committed not to release the results of new opinion polls or any unscientific opinion surveys to the public within 48 hours of the start of voting in the general election.
No new poll results
"For their part, the media organisations have agreed that the results of such public-opinion polls or unscientific opinion surveys would not be released to the public in the 24-hour period prior to the start of polling in the elections," Dunn added.
On the question of a breach of the agreement, Dunn made it clear that no sanctions have been attached. "It is an honour agreement and we expect it to be implemented in the spirit in which it is voluntarily agreed."
He said the agreement did not include normal editorials and public affairs articles by news organisations.
Miller argued that shame could be equally effective as conviction.
"When you voluntarily agree to something and sign to it, revelation that you have not honoured your word brings a certain amount of shame," he stressed.
edmond.campbell@gleanerjm.com
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JLP surges ahead
Published: Thursday | December 15, 2011 88 Comments
Holness 36%
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by Arthur Hall, Senior Staff Reporter
The big green machine being ridden by recently crowned champion jockey Andrew Holness has surged into the lead, gaining six percentage points in the past month, as the party most likely to win the December 29 general election.
But the heavyweight orange machine, ridden by former champion jockey Portia Simpson Miller, is not yet out of the race and, with two furlongs to go before they hit the finish line, it is still anybody's race.
That's the finding of the latest Gleaner-commissioned Bill Johnson public-opinion poll conducted islandwide on December 10 and 12.
Johnson's team found that if the election were held today, 31 per cent of the voters would put their 'X' beside the bell, the symbol of the Jamaica Labour Party (JLP), while a further five per cent of the voters say they would probably vote JLP.
That gives the Holness-led party a solid 36 per cent support.For the People's National Party (PNP), 29 per cent of voters say they would definitely put their 'X' beside its symbol, the head. A further three per cent say they would probably vote for the PNP. That leaves the Simpson Miller-led party with 32 per cent support or four percentage points behind the JLP.With the poll having a sampling error of plus or minus four per cent, the parties are in a statistical dead heat, but what should worry the PNP is that this is the first time it has trailed the JLP in any Gleaner-Johnson poll since 2007.
The PNP's troubles are compounded by the fact that despite its campaigning over the past month, its support has remained at 32 per cent, which the Johnson team found when it tested the pulse of the nation in November.
In the meantime, the JLP has seen its support move from 29 to 36 per cent, a seven-percentage point gain since November.
The undecided population has made the expected decline as the country gets closer to election day, dropping from 13 per cent in November to nine per cent this time around, with all of those persons moving to the JLP.
The persons who say they will not vote also declined by two percentage points in the past month with the JLP again the beneficiary of that switch.
For the persons who say they will vote JLP, 34 per cent say that's because of tradition, 19 per cent say Holness deserves a chance, while 18 per cent say the party is better than the PNP.
An almost equal number of persons (36 per cent) say they will vote PNP because of tradition, 16 per cent say it would do a better job of managing the affairs of the country and 10 per cent say the PNP is better than the JLP.
Of the persons who are undecided or will not vote, 24 per cent are not interested in politics, 15 per cent say neither of the two major political parties has helped them as individuals, and a combined 26 per cent say neither the PNP nor the JLP has helped the country and it will make no difference which is running the affairs of the State.
For the pollster Johnson, the latest numbers are consistent with the recent constituency polls that were commissioned by The Gleaner. He argued that the numbers should be cause for concern by the PNP.
"The last two weeks were good for the PNP and bad for the JLP with the JDIP revelations and the US plane controversy, but still this has not been reflected in more persons saying that they will be voting for the PNP," noted Johnson.
The latest poll has a sample size of 1,008 and was conducted in all 63 constituencies across Jamaica.
arthur.hall@gleanerjm.com
Share |
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Most Jamaicans want Andrew as PM
Published: Thursday | December 15, 2011 49 Comments
by Arthur Hall, Senior Staff Reporter
Almost 50 per cent of Jamaicans believe they are worse off today than they were in 2007 when the Jamaica Labour Party (JLP) was elected to form the government.
But that has not stopped a large plurality of Jamaicans from seeing the JLP as the better party to manage the affairs of state at this time.
A just-concluded Gleaner-commissioned Bill Johnson has found that 41 per cent of Jamaicans believe the JLP would do the better job of governing the country at this time. Thirty-six per cent of Jamaicans believe the Portia Simpson Miller-led People's National Party (PNP) would do a better job, while 23 per cent are undecided.
The majority of the voters (55 per cent) also believe that JLP leader Andrew Holness deserves to be returned as prime minister after the votes are counted come December 29, while 30 per cent say someone else should get the job.
Of those who say "stick with Andrew", 27 per cent say they have adopted this position because he deserves a chance, 27 per cent say because he is young and 10 per cent admire him for what they say are his good ideas.
The voters who want to see the back of Holness include 24 per cent who say he lacks experience, 12 per cent who say he is too young, 11 per cent who claim he cannot be trusted and 11 per cent who argue that he is the same as former JLP leader Bruce Golding.
Holness also continues to lead Simpson Miller as the person voters believe would do a better job as prime minister in today's Jamaica.
Forty-four per cent of the respondents told the Gleaner-Johnson team they believe Holness would be the better head of government while 35 per cent said Simpson Miller.
The nine percentage point gap between the two is almost unchanged from when the pollster asked a similar question in October.
The latest Gleaner-Johnson poll was conducted on December 10 and 11 in all 63 constituencies. It has a sampling error of plus of minus three per cent and a sample size of 1,008.
Johnson will return to the streets to test the pulse of the nation on one more occasion before the December 29 general election.
arthur.hall@gleanerjm.com
No media ad campaigns, polls after December 27
Published: Thursday | December 15, 2011 2 Comments
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http://history1900s.about.com/cs/trumanharry/a/deweytruman_2.htm
Give 'Em Hell Harry vs. The Polls
The polls, reporters, political writers - they all believed Dewey was going to win by a landslide. On September 9, 1948, Elmo Roper was so confident of a Dewey win that he announced there would be no further Roper Polls on this election. Roper said, "My whole inclination is to predict the election of Thomas E. Dewey by a heavy margin and devote my time and efforts to other things."2
Truman was undaunted. He believed that with a lot of hard work, he could get the votes. Though it is usually the contender and not the incumbent that works hard to win the race, Dewey and the Republicans were so confident they were going to win - barring any major faux pas - that they decided to make an extremely low-key campaign.
Truman's campaign was based on getting out to the people. While Dewey was aloof and stuffy, Truman was open, friendly, and seemed one with the people. In order to talk to the people, Truman got in his special Pullman car, the Ferdinand Magellan, and traveled the country. In six weeks, Truman traveled approximately 32,000 miles and gave 355 speeches.3 On this "Whistle-Stop Campaign," Truman would stop at town after town and give a speech, have people ask questions, introduce his family, and shake hands. From his dedication and strong will to fight as an underdog against the Republicans, Harry Truman acquired the slogan, "Give 'em hell, Harry!"
http://opinionpollingjamstyle.blogspot.com/2011_10_01_archive.html
Sunday, October 30, 2011
"(2012 Jamaican Election) Socio-Political 'Natural' Laws
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X-1:
Newly elected Jamaican Prime Minister Andrew Holness is firmly in control of the Jamaican government and is psychologically tempted daily to chart his own mandate consistent with human nature. The operative question is: When will he call the next election? Before one dives head first into the related timeliness of election debates, one should consider the following socio-psycho-political observable laws as documented by some very smart people, as follows:
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Parkinson's law
Parkinson's law is the adage first articulated by Cyril Northcote Parkinson as the first sentence of a humorous essay published in The Economist in 1955:[1][2]
"Work expands so as to fill the time available for its completion"
It was later reprinted together with other essays in the book Parkinson's Law: The Pursuit of Progress (London, John Murray, 1958). He derived the dictum from his extensive experience in the British Civil Service.
The current form of the law is not that which Parkinson refers to by that name in the article. Rather, he assigns to the term a mathematical equation describing the rate at which bureaucracies expand over time. Much of the essay is dedicated to a summary of purportedly scientific observations supporting his law, such as the increase in the number of employees at the Colonial Office while Great Britain's overseas empire declined (indeed, he shows that the Colonial Office had its greatest number of staff at the point when it was folded into the Foreign Office because of a lack of colonies to administer). He explains this growth by two forces: (1) "An official wants to multiply subordinates, not rivals" and (2) "Officials make work for each other." He notes in particular that the total of those employed inside a bureaucracy rose by 5-7% per year "irrespective of any variation in the amount of work (if any) to be done."
In 1986, Alessandro Natta complained about the swelling bureaucracy in Italy. Mikhail Gorbachev responded that "Parkinson's Law works everywhere."[
In time, however, the first-referenced meaning of the phrase has dominated, and sprouted several corollaries: for example, the derivative relating to computers:
Data expands to fill the space available for storage.
or
Storage requirements will increase to meet storage capacity.
or
Nature abhors a vacuum.
Some define Parkinson's Law in regard to time as:
The amount of time which one has to perform a task is the amount of time it will take to complete the task.
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X-1:
If one subscribes to this logic, then you may conclude that the Jamaican Election will not occur within the next 6 months and may even occur just a few months prior to the alotted deadline date. However, if you do not subscribe to this logic or view it as N/A, then the conclusion maybe that the election will occur within weeks or months. If that occurs then by association other 'natural' laws may be magnified.
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Hofstadter's law
Hofstadter's Law is a self-referencing time-related adage, coined by Douglas Hofstadter and named after himself.
Hofstadter's Law:
It always takes longer than you expect, even when you take into account Hofstadter's Law.
Douglas Hofstadter, Gödel, Escher, Bach: An Eternal Golden Braid[1]
Hofstadter's Law was a part of Douglas Hofstadter's 1979 book Gödel, Escher, Bach: An Eternal Golden Braid. The law is a statement regarding the difficulty of accurately estimating the time it will take to complete tasks of any substantial complexity.[2] It is often cited amongst programmers, especially in discussions of techniques to improve productivity, such as The Mythical Man-Month or extreme programming.[3] The recursive nature of the law is a reflection of the universal experience of difficulty experienced in estimating complex tasks despite all best efforts, including knowing that the task is complex.
Optimism bias
Optimism bias is the demonstrated systematic tendency for people to be overly optimistic about the outcome of planned actions. This includes over-estimating the likelihood of positive events and under-estimating the likelihood of negative events. Along with the illusion of control and illusory superiority, it is one of the positive illusions to which people are generally susceptible. Excessive optimism can result in cost overruns, benefit shortfalls, and delays when plans are implemented or expensive projects are built.
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X-1
If the election occurs within weeks or months, Hofstadter's Law and Optimism Bias will become magnified variables. How will these variables relate to the eventual election results. This question can only be addressed accurately in an election post mortem.
It has been said and documented that the most consistent predictor of future behavior is past behavior. Bruce Golding had a history of quitting and so he was true to form in resigning.
The JLP has a history of calling early elections and they have motivation for doing so again, as in 'game changer' and trying to capitalize on the New Leadership bounce before the next 'negative story' breaks.
One may conclude that calling an early election, maybe like trying to beat "the galawasp to the water". This is politics at its best, as both sides jockey for the moment(s) of advantage. All these various moves and counter moves are emotionally based, and attitudes are more stationary; hence, the methodology employed in X-1's research as summarized below.
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X-1
"It appears that X-1 is spot-on in reference to his research data's inferential analysis in regards to the JLP''s Bruce Golding negative trending pattern. Will this move or pending move to be materialized be a "Game Changer"? Yes and No, Why?
There exists a thousand words between the verbal and written. Scientifically, this move (Golding Resignation) will not have a general election material effect, but rather a "spot in the pond effect" A bounce will occur, but the trending negative pattern will hold true. "Game Changer" will be "Regime Changer" in the end, as the Central Tendency illustrated in Chart 1 and 2 were not predicated solely on any politicians individual value, but rather attitudinal value of the masses seen through the lens of scientific methodology.
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Election 2011 Results
BLOWOUT: PNP 41 - JLP 22
Published: Friday | December 30, 2011 41 Comments
Portia Simpson-Miller
People's National Party supporters in ecstasy at the party's Old Hope Road, St Andrew, headquarters on learning of their victory in the polls last night. - Ian Allen/Photographer
Jamaica Labour Party (JLP) leader, outgoing Prime Minister Andrew Holness (centre), and (from right) his wife Juliet, party General Secretary Aundré Franklin, former Senator Arthur Williams and MP designate for West Kingston, Desmond McKenzie, face the media at the JLP's Belmont Road headquarters last night. - Gladstone Taylor/Photographer1 2 3 >
by Daraine Luton, Senior Staff Reporter
Defying opinion polls that suggested yesterday's general election was too close to call, the People's National Party (PNP) secured a stunning victory, winning 41 of the 63 seats in the House of Representatives.
The party gained 53 per cent of the popular vote.
The result will propel the PNP's president, Portia Simpson Miller, back to the premiership, a job she held for 18 months and lost a mere four years ago when her party was prised from government after more than 18 years in office.
In fact, the defeat of the Jamaica Labour Party (JLP) meant the first time since the advent of universal adult suffrage, nearly seven decades ago, that an administration has been chucked out after a single term - an outcome that will likely lead to much soul-searching within the organisation.
Indeed, in yesterday's election, several leading JLP figures, including Cabinet ministers Robert Montague and Clive Mullings, spectacularly lost their parliamentary seats
"I want to thank the prime minister who called earlier to congratulate me, and he was very gracious," Simpson Miller said.
"I am humbled by the support of the Jamaican people and I ask you to ensure that you greet JLP supporters with love."
